COVID-19 Diary – Day 465

Weekly New Infections Charts

Every Monday we take a look at our week-to-week totals and chart how BC’s fight against COVID-19 is progressing. Because of the reporting schedule used in BC, we use 7-day totals running from Tuesday to Monday. The above chart shows each week of the pandemic as a unique bar.

For the ninth week in a row our new case number 7-day totals have dropped. Last week we saw 244 fewer new cases reported compared to the previous week. Our 7-day totals are continuing to drop below the numbers seen at the end of our second wave, and represent an 91% reduction from our third wave peak in April.

Due to an issue in BC’s case reporting system, the 7-day period of Feb 26-Mar 1 contains 68 additional cases that shouldn’t be included. Unfortunately, we do not know how many were allocated to which health authorities, so we can not remove them manually. This problem only affects the breakdown graphs (here and the one below).

To better understand how the provincial numbers break down, we also look at the individual health authority regions.

We are continuing to see massive improvements from the Fraser Health region! Back in April we were seeing more than 600 new cases a day from this area, and it is now down to fewer than 50 cases a day, and still dropping.

The Vancouver Coastal Health region is also seeing decreases in new cases numbers, but may be hitting a plateau for weekly new cases, around the ~100 a week range.

Cases from outside of Canada began being reported during the week of Jul 7-13, and the initial spike of 51 cases reflects the data catching up. Due to an issue in BC’s case reporting system, the 7-day period of Feb 26-Mar 1 contains 68 additional cases that shouldn’t be included. Unfortunately, we do not know how many were allocated to which health authorities, so we can not remove them manually. This problem only affects the breakdown graphs (here and the one above). During the week of Mar 23-29, the Interior Health region’s numbers were bumped up an additional 36 cases due to an error where historical cases from 2020 were previously missed.

Thankfully, all 3 other health regions are seeing at least small drops in their new case numbers, as seen in the above chart. In the last 2 weeks we’ve seen the Interior Health region’s new case numbers plateau, dropping only 20 cases per week, over the last two 7-day periods.

Both the Vancouver Island and Northern Health regions have fully bounded back from their previous spike in new case numbers, and seem to be trending downwards again.

Some data points have had to been estimated by averaging values, specifically Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays without specific reporting figures.

There are currently 1,204 known active cases of COVID-19 in BC. This number represents a decrease of just over 330 active cases from this time last week. BC’s number of active cases had been dropping significantly for the last 9 weeks straight.

Week-to-Week Growth Rate

This graph tracks the growth rate between 7-day totals and is a good indicator of the overall momentum of new case numbers.

We’re happy to report that in the last 7 days BC has once again seen a decrease in the new case growth rate! That difference is only about 1%, but it means we are a further step away from seeing increases trending, and that is important.

This is now the 4th week after restrictions were relaxed recently, and also marks 1 week since the second set of restrictions were relaxed. The fact that cases continue to drop, even if slowly, is very encouraging!

Hospitalizations & Deaths

Currently, there are 108 people in BC hospitalized with COVID-19, and 48 of those are confined to the ICU. Non-critical hospitalizations are continuing to fall quite quickly, but the ICU numbers have increased slightly since this time last week. Last Monday there were 42 people in the ICU.

In the last 7 days, another 9 people in BC have died from COVID-19. The numbers have been slowly coming down week by week, but this is the first time we have seen fewer than 10 deaths in a 7-day period, since late October last year! It’s a very important milestone to finally hit, but we can not lose sight of the goal of 0 deaths.

As always, our hearts go out to everyone who has lost someone during this pandemic.

Vaccination Roll-Out

Numbers over holidays and weekends have been estimated based on averages between known reported totals.
Individual days may be +/- but the totals per week are accurate.

Since the beginning of our vaccination program on December 15th, there have been a combined 4,436,432 COVID-19 vaccinations in our province, with 935,401 of these being a person’s second dose. The second dose (green) line is now quickly ramping up in the above graph! In the last 7 days, we averaged about 45,992 second doses a day, which is also the current record!

As of today, 3,501,031 individuals have received at least 1 dose of vaccine, representing about 68.0% of BC’s total population. This also represents 75.8% of all BC residents 12 and over, and 77.3% of all adults in BC. 18.1% of BC’s total population has now received 2 doses of vaccine.

In the last 7 days, roughly 1.3% of the people in BC received their first dose of vaccine, and 6.3% received their second dose.

The above chart shows the average number of vaccinations for each 7-day period since the beginning of the vaccination program. As you can see in the last 7 days the daily average number of vaccinations in BC was 55,441.

First dose vaccination numbers are starting to significantly slow down at this point, with only just over 1% of the people in BC getting their first dose over a 7-day period now. The vast majority of vaccinations being administered are now second doses.

Vaccination Roll-out Update

According to the federal vaccine distribution page, BC will see more than 1.5 million doses of vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna in the next 2 weeks (656,370 Pfizer, 896,980 Moderna). This roughly averages to more than 111k doses a day!

For anyone who received an AstraZeneca vaccine dose already, you may be interested in the results of this recent study on mixing vaccine types. Apparently the strongest immuno-response may be caused by having an initial AstraZeneca dose, and following it up with a Pfizer dose afterwards. More information can be found here.

If you would like to check to see when you can expect to be invited to book your second vaccination shot, you will want to check BC’s Health Gateway portal. The Health Gateway contains such information as your prescription medication history, the results of any COVID-19 tests you’ve taken, your immunization records, and eventually it will also be able to show you your lab results from any lab work you may have needed previously. Visit the Health Gateway here for more information.

If you are looking for a way to promote vaccination, you may be interested in being part of the Canadian vaccination campaign: This is Our Shot. Information can be found here.

That’s all for now, stay safe everyone!

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